US-India ties in 2025 and the future of global power

In August 2025, Trump imposed a 25% tariff on India, and even ramped it up to 50%. This shocked economists around the world, especially since India has long been seen as a strong U.S. ally in the region. India could counter China’s influence in Asia, and its people have long had ties with America, especially due to high talent immigration to the US.

The official messaging was that India was buying Russia oil, and that US officials had sanctioned Russia since its invasion of Ukraine 2022.

So why is Trump really targeting India?

While Trump is imposing tariffs on India, a longtime ally, it is also cozying up to Pakistan, loaning it a supply of fighter jets, tanks, ships, and missiles to reinforce its arsenal. The U.S. has given Pakistan around 67 billion dollars in military equipment primarily to counter terrorism and promote regional stability. However, many critics point out that Pakistan has a history of corruption, and that military aid was not properly used to tackle terrorism. In addition, there has been contention that Pakistan has used US weapons against American allies like India, which caused further tensions. 

Is the US turning away from India to some of its rivals, and if so, why is this happening? 

The US supports Pakistan with military aid not because it has close cultural or bilateral ties with Pakistan but because Pakistan is plagued by terrorism, and the US has to combat terrorism around the world or risk attacks to itself later on. Since the September 11 attacks, the US has launched a global “war on terror”, and it has invested heavily in supporting its allies across the globe to combat terrorism. For the US, supporting countries like Pakistan regardless of the administration was a given, not because it likes Pakistan, but because it has to as these countries lack the capacity to effectively fight terrorism.  

So, why is Trump targeting India? Officially, the reason listed was that India was still purchasing Russian oil. However, Trump is an unconventional president, and he has previously targeted many long-term allies. He threatened Canada with massive tariffs, and even floated the idea of making Canada a US territory, along with Greenland. Trump even ordered a massive raid on a Hyundai factory with South Korean workers, which resulted in the Korean government stepping in to repatriate their citizens home. As such, we can think of the Trump administration as an irrational administration that does not follow conventional international relation logics. 

If so, the tariffs against India might have happened regardless of whether India had purchased Russian oil. Other countries like China, Turkiye, Brazil, and EU nations are still purchasing Russian fuels but have not faced any repercussions. This tells us that the breakdown in US-India relations is not due to a fault by India, but due to Trump’s hyper-aggressive approach towards international relations, where he sees the need for the US to dominate by force. 

As such, in recent months, India has started to work on bilateral ties with China, which it previously saw as a strong competitor. Both countries see manufacturing as a strong engine of growth, and competitor for the same clients. Additionally, in 2020 and 2021, China and India fought at the Sino-Indian border, resulting in the deaths of 20 Indian soldiers and 4 Chinese soldiers. However, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi recently visited China for the first time since 2018, hoping to improve ties with China and other nations like Russia. 

In adopting such an aggressive approach to international relations, the US has not achieved its goals of dominating global politics but instead, pushed its once-allies away from itself and to other world powers. Only time can tell how President Trump’s policies would diminish America’s future influence.